Perspective: Bill Gates Takes on Climate Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the November issue of the Atlantic magazine, Bill Gates is interviewed by James Bennet who quotes Gates as saying that “we need an energy miracle” to propel the world beyond fossil fuels fast enough to outpace potentially cataclysmic climate change. This is a cogent piece with a new perspective on what realistically can be done to deal with Climate Change keyed to carbon dioxide formed from the combustion of fossil fuels. The essence of Bill Gates position is that we need an energy miracle to accomplish the CO2 reduction goals the government is setting. The immensity of our use of CO2 producing fuels, the growing demand for energy, the low cost and plentiful supply of fossil fuels and our reluctance to build nuclear electrical plants, makes moving to a new energy paradigm big a hill to climb. Gates recommends that we invest in R& D to release the Country’s entrepreneurial energy to solve some of these complex issues. That the clean energy goal the environmentalists insist on is so gigantic is why Bill Gates says it will take a miracle to achieve it.

 Here is a summary of the points Gates makes.

• It is unprecedented to change an infrastructure this large this quickly. Moreover, it is not clear to Gates that there is anything in sight that could significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

• Clean energy enthusiasts make unrealistic claims such as that solar energy has the same cost as hydrocarbon based energy. When the sun shines solar energy can compete with hydrocarbon energy, but when it doesn’t, hydrocarbons have to be on standby. It is expensive to have a huge hydrocarbon energy infrastructure on standby to be used intermittently, and battery technology is not cheep.

 

• To get to clean energy is a global challenge. Carbon dioxide is not a local pollutant. It mixes in the global atmosphere. It doesn’t matter where the hydrocarbon energy is produced in China, India or elsewhere. 

• Heating levels have not exactly tracked the climate models. This gives the skeptics reason to wait and see, thus not providing a political will to drop everything to tackle this goal.

Let’s examine what is involved. A century ago our energy came from the combustion of biomass and coal with a smidgeon from hydroelectricity. Today more than 90% of our energy comes from biomass, coal, oil, and natural gas, all of which produce CO2 when combusted. The remaining energy comes from hydroelectric and nuclear with only a smidgeon coming from renewables such as solar and wind.  

The amount of CO2 produced relates to the amount of carbon in the fuel being burned. The highest carbon is in coal, the next is oil and biomass with natural gas having the least. The amount of heat produced relates to both the carbon and hydrogen content. Here again natural gas is the best of the fossil fuels. Its chemical formula is one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms per molecule, CH4.Moreover, natural gas contains no sulfur or other toxic substances released when biomass, coal or oil are combusted. 

This chart shows the source of the US energy 100 years ago versus today and forecasts what it probably will be in 2030.The “amount” column reflects the increased energy used and how energy demand has grown and will probably grow with population growth. Thus, for example, 2015 has four times the population of 1915, and population in 2030 will be about 30% greater than 2015. This chart also shows the amount of CO2 created from the combustion of the various energy sources.

 

		ENERGY SOURCE VERSUS CO2 PRODUCTION
										Projected Energy to 2030
		1915	1915		2015	2015				No    Change			Change
Source	CO2*	Energy	CO2		Energy	CO2				Energy	CO2		Energy	CO2
		Amount			Amount					Amount			Amount
Renewable	0	0	0		4	0				5	0		60	0
Nuclear	0	0	0		8	0				10	0		10	0
Hydroelectric	0	0	0		4	0				5	0		5	0
Natural Gas	117	0	0		60	68				77	90		100	117
Oil	161	6	7		184	312				236	350		200	322
Biomass	200	44	88		20	4				26	52		20	4
Coal	228	50	114		120	272				157	354		121	276
*
		100	209		400	656				516	846		516	719
*	Pounds of CO2 Produced
	Per Million Pounds of BTU					Total Energy Demand					in 2030
	(British Thermal Units)					30% above total energy of 2015

Note these highlights from the chart.  

• The chart shows a 4 fold increase in energy consumption in the hundred years from 1915 to 2015, and a 30% forecast increase from 2015 to 2030 due to population growth.
• Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectric produce zero CO2, and natural gas produces significantly less CO2 than the other carbonaceous sources of energy.
• In 2030 even when we assume that penetration from wind and solar will grow from 1 to 11% of total energy along with a healthy growth of natural gas at the expense of oil and coal, the total CO2 reduction is only 15%.

                                               (846-719)/846= 15%   

This is substantially short of the 30% the government’s goal, thus supporting Gate’s premise of the magnitude of the challenge.                                                                                        

On the positive side, Gates believes we should unleash the creative and entrepreneurial human spirit by funding research for the better ideas. The funding should come from private sources, such as the Gates Foundation is doing, as well as government sources. These goals would include using fossil fuel more efficiently as well as developing solar and other renewables that are more competitive with fossil fuel without the need for economic subsidies.  

Obviously a short term approach could come from the conversion of coal and oil to natural gas. Natural gas is economically competitive with oil and coal, produces significantly less CO2 and needs no financial subsidy as do the renewables. Nuclear produces no CO2, but the fact that nuclear has waste disposal problems makes it unattractive. Nevertheless, research should be devoted to solving that problem. 

Taxing fossil fuel and subsidizing non-competitive renewables simply increases the cost of fuels for automotive, factory operation and home electric and heating. All of these ideas penalize the poor while having little impact on the wealthy, thus causing the poor to become poorer.

It is to be hoped that politicians and environmentalists listen to what Gates is telling us so we don’t do something stupid.

 

Perspective: Why the Electorate Likes Trump and Carson

The Media and the Republican Party hierarchy cannot figure out the Trump and Carson phenomenon.  That is understandable because both the Media and the Politicians are so out of touch with the voters. A casual look and one would note that about 90 million Americans are out of meaningful jobs, and they are mad as hell about it because they have been unceremoniously dumped out of the market and can’t get back. These are not ditch digger jobs, and every segment of the labor market is affected. Moreover, it is more than the loss of income. It’s the loss of who you are! For example, when you are introduced to someone, they inevitably ask you what you do and you proudly respond, I am a manager, teacher, minister, supervisor, secretary, nurse or whatever. Your job defined you!  

Now, out of work for 3-4 years or more and asked the question, you have to say that you used to be a bank teller, or a paralegal, a manager, an accountant, secretary, teacher or a waiter. Now you are unemployed. The Republicans don’t know how to tell you how they will bring jobs back. The Democrats seem content to leave things the ways things are, blame Wall Street and only want to tax the rich and give the unemployed stuff free. These folks want a job, not a handout!!

The truth is that those out of work do not trust the Politicians. They think the Politicians are the cause of the problem, and they are right. Moreover, the out of work don’t care what a Politician says about his record or the claims about what he has done. Take Jeb Bush for example. He says that ten years ago he did great things as Governor of Florida. Neither Bush, the politicians nor especially the Media understand that ten years is equivalent to a century considering what has changed in a mere ten years. Ten years ago the I-Pad, the Smart Phone with all of it apps, Face book, Twitter, Instagram, Streaming of TV programs and Movies, Google searches and the driverless car were ideas but did not exist in the mainstream as they do today.  

And these developments have already impacted or are about to impact virtually every good paying job including medicine, law, manufacturing, shopping, restaurants, and  particularly education, to name just a few. If you checked into a restaurant or a store and found a kiosk where there used to be a person, you know what we are talking about. Where there used to be people waiting upon you; now there are machines.  

You would think politicians would notice that the machine pays no tax, and buys no goods. Thus, one might expect the Politicians would plan to tax or regulate the machine. Instead the Politicians allow the capitalist who purchases and installs the machine, to get a fast tax write-off. Is any wonder the out of work are so angry!! 

Making the problem more complex for the out of work voter, is that jobs that are available such as managing the machines require higher skills than many of those displaced have. Worse they and potential employers are not sure they are even trainable. Exacerbating the problem further is that employers can find a younger more trainable person who works for a lower salary than the 50 something who lost a good high paying job.  

Then there is the case that many manufacturing jobs are returning, but employers such as GE, who constantly tout their digital expertise, seek employees with skills in science, technology, engineering and math. Many Asians who came here to school who have these skills are being encouraged to stay, thus creating another facet of the immigration dilemma that the Politicians are unable to articulate, least to solve.  And this impacts the jobless, as well.    

Now, creating those self rewarding jobs will not be easy. However, the least we should expect of the Politicians and the Media to do is to take a stab at talking about it in truthful terms instead of blaming Wall Street or China or something else. Then they might be able to come up with plans that fit the needs of these 90 million out of work. 

The bottom line is that the voting public in both parties whose jobs have been impacted by globalization and the digital revolution know the Politicians are responsible for the entire problem due the tax and regulations they have promulgated that impede job creation. The Media is completely out of touch or worse is deliberately misleading and therefore is no help. These unemployed are furious and have had it with the Political Class and the Media. They want someone who is honest and will do what they say they will do about their plight, and furthermore and most importantly, someone who is not and never has been a politician controlled by lobbyists!! This is why Trump, Carson and Fiorina, the non-politicians, pole so high. The Media and the Elite Political Class don’t get it, and it is not likely that they ever will!

 

 

 

 

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