Perspective: This Election Should be About JOBS,JOBS, JOBS!!!

Everyone knows a relative or friend who has lost a job or is about to lose one or is being forced into early and unwanted retirement. Therefore, jobs and how to create them is of paramount importance to all voters. Our Presidential candidates should be talking about realistic specific and detailed plans, which can be expressed in every-day language, just how they would deal with this issue. Unfortunately neither Obama nor Romney is doing that!. We don’t expect Obama to lay out such a plan because he is a no-nothing, no-experienced ideologue. Romney could, should and must!! But so far he hasn’t! A sensible plan would resonate with every voter regardless of party. Romney needs to be pressured to state his plan, and the sooner the better.

The good news regarding the jobs issue is that we are within five years or so of having a shortage of workers. For perspective, the Baby Boomers are beginning to retire at the rate of 10,000 per day. The Boomer generation consists of 80 million persons ranging in age from 48-66, but there are only 40 million in the next generation whose ages range from 32-47. So it is clear that there will be a shortfall of workers in the next 5-10 years.

Right now there is a shortage of U.S. workers who have majored in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math, so-called STEM. These jobs are critical to the development of and maintenance of the digital technology that is already in place and is a growing segment of the jobs market. One idea to fill this shortage is to employ persons from China who have been educated in America. This is an outrage when you consider that student loans now exceed one trillion dollars, and currently one in two college graduates have majored in fields for which there are no jobs.

To devise a plan, one must first define why jobs are returning at such an anemic rate from the Great Recession of 2008. A key reason, but not being discussed, is that digital devices have replaced more U.S. jobs during the past five years than have our global competitors. Anyone who is not asleep has to have noticed that robots answering phones and ATM machines dispensing cash have already replaced humans. The Kindle and similar e-book devices a mere four years old are in the process of eliminating every part of the traditional paper book industry from log to library. Meanwhile, our Military are using pilot-less drones to pinpoint and kill our enemies. Then while we weren’t watching or being informed by the Media or our Representatives, the Digital Revolution has produced a driverless car that has driven one thousand miles with a blind man as the only passenger, and IBM has produced a computer that can search historic documents better than humans. Do you think the elimination of fork lift driver and paralegal jobs are and far behind? Recently the CEO of Google, acknowledging that the rate of adoption of digital devices is accelerating, stated that we are only about “ONE PERCENT” along the way!! I capitalized those two words on purpose so we would burn that number into our brains, because we haven’t seen anything yet.

So, why are robots preferred to human workers? Simply stated, they work 24/7 which equates to four times as many hours per year as a human can work. In other words one machine could replace four humans. In addition these digital devices make fewer errors than humans, require no healthcare, pensions, vacations, maternity leave, have no egos that have to be assuaged, and don’t join unions. Finally, they can be fired at will, without severance pay, advance notification or legal expenses in the event that a better machine comes along. The bottom line is that the total cost per hour of a digital machine is significantly below the cost of a US human laborer. That is why we are experiencing the paradox of no job growth while corporations are profitable in a weak market. Productivity is up and labor costs are down.

The United States leads the world in digital technology development and application , and we should turn this lead to our advantage. The labor costs of digital equipment in the US can be equal to or below foreign labor. With that advantage, and with a smart US policy, we could keep manufacturing jobs from leaving the US, and in addition, we could attract jobs back to the United States that were lost to low cost overseas labor.

The second item to consider in the development of a plan is to review our assets and determine how they might fit a jobs creation plan.

Assets:

1. We have the best university education system in the world to create the STEM graduates we need for the digital age.

2. We have the largest reserves of natural gas in the world

Job Creation Plan:

1. Create a US Government/Private Investor program to convert all Cars, Trucks, Buses, Other Vehicles and Gas Stations from gasoline and diesel fuels to compressed natural gas (CNG) by 2024

• Make low interest loans to Private Investors, automotive owners and gas station owners for the purchase of capital equipment required to make CNG conversions

 Permit rapid tax write-off of Private Investor capital required for the transportation of CNG to the distribution locations.

 Waive for a period of ten years any US government mandate or regulation that impedes the plan. This includes, but is not limited to, regulations which prohibit drilling, fracking or transporting of natural gas on private property, US government lands and wildlife habitats.

2. Focus educational financial support on those students who major in STEM

• Develop programs to encourage females, who represent about 55 % of college graduates, to increase the percentage who graduate with majors in STEM from the current 6 % to 15% within 4 years (2016)

3. Promote the development and implementation of digital devices

• To reduce our labor costs to a level equal to or below those of China and other developing countries.

Benefits of the Plan:

1. Using our natural gas gets us off foreign oil and the fluctuations in oil price caused by speculators. Environmentally, natural gas is cleaner burning than gasoline and diesel fuels and produces less carbon dioxide, as well. Moreover, getting off foreign oil would strengthen the dollar.

2. Unemployed Baby Boomers can be given jobs immediately that do not require the high skills of the digital revolution

3. We should focus college degrees on real jobs such as those in STEM versus those in fields where there are no jobs.

4. The substitution of digital devices reduces the advantage that low labor costs the Chinese and other developing countries have

5. The maintenance of digital devices requires high skills, and thus pays well.

6. Because we are educating our children in digital technologies from K-12, they are in the best position of any of their generation in the world capable of imagining where digital devices can be applied and how to maintain them, thus giving the US a competitive advantage over foreign competitors for the rest of the 21st century.

Governor Romney could and should endorse this plan as soon as possible because such a plan would resonate with every potential voter, and the plan could be implemented within six months of a President’s taking office.

The mantra for this plan should be:

Take Back America

Abab Oil NO…US Gas YES

Romney must avoid at all costs being distracted by Obamas’s attacks on how large his LaJolla house is or claiming that Republican men are the reason why women cannot get contraceptives or are paid less than men for the same job. Most importantly of all, he must not get into any environmental donnybrook regarding the alleged connection between the use of fossil fuels and global warming. The jobs issue is a here and now crisis; whereas any serious harm from man-made global warming, if it exists, is decades if not centuries away.

Perspective: What is the True Story About Our Middle Class?

Every chance he gets President Obama exhorts that “The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer”. He implies that the middle class is being destroyed by greedy capitalists. This is extremely dangerous and must be stopped before we have a revolution on our hands. Our President either knows nothing about what is happening to our middle class, doesn’t want to know or he is deliberately fanning the flames of class warfare to benefit his reelection chances. Moreover, he either fabricates facts or he has been poorly educated. For example, he berates the Supreme Court regarding Obmacare demonstrating that he does not understand Constitutional Law despite his having taught it. He shows daily that he does not understand free markets. And when he instigates class warfare over the alleged decline of the middle class he shows that he does not understand history either.

The historical fact is that the United States had a one time competitive edge in the worldwide market that elevated our middle class to a level of prosperity never before known in all of history. It was a fluke, a one time occurrence that lasted twenty five years and is not likely to ever be seen again. What caused this rare event and when did it begin? It was the event that Franklin Roosevelt called a “day that will go down in infamy”. That was December 7, 1941 when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. This forced the United States to enter WWII, and that changed everything!!

Our manufacturing industry was flat on its back from the Depression, and one could not be certain that there was a middle class, let alone anything that could be called affluent. But from the moment we entered the war, our entire nation and its manufacturing capability were converted exclusively to the production of materials for war. Within the next three and a half years, we out-stripped the entire world in the production of war-time material. Our incredible military, using these materials, physically destroyed most of Europe’s manufacturing, and with atomic bombs completed what normal bombing had done to destroy Japan’s manufacturing base, as well. By August of 1945 the war with Germany, Italy and Japan was ended and on our terms of unconditional surrender. Meanwhile, the UK and the Soviet Union were bereft of any semblance of a manufacturing base as a result of what Germany had done to them in the late 1930’ and early 1940’s.

Consequently, the United States manufacturing capability survived the war unscathed, and our industries stood alone, without competition, to serve not only the US but the world markets, as well. In addition the GI Bill provided college and equivalent educations for the millions of returning veterans to man the positions required to fill the huge pent-up demand.

Then, perhaps because we felt remorse for the damage we had wrought to the world’s production capability, we introduced the European Recovery Program, dubbed the Marshall Plan. This Program provided monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the War in order to prevent the spread of Soviet communism. The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948. Simultaneously, the United States funded Japan’s recovery when it occupied Japan from 1945 to 1952.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the United States economy would boom while the rest of the world foundered. This went on during the 1950’s and the 1960’s and halfway into the 1970’s, and manufacturing jobs paying good money were created in abundance. The unions which dominated labor in the automotive industry, through threat of strikes and actual strikes, demanded and received better wages and benefits than could have ever been imagined. Suppliers to the car, housing and related industries, which included steel, rubber, plastics and lumber expanded and prospered, as well. As a result of these high paying manufacturing jobs, a new vibrant and prosperous middle class developed in the United States that was more affluent than any middle class before or after it. The returning veterans could afford to wed and begin families, and they were able to purchase homes, furnishings, appliances and automobiles. And their affluence extended to their children, the “baby boomers”, born between 1946 and 1956 that were raised in the new middle class with privileges and educations like no children before them.

Beginning in the 1970’s, however, the unique monopolistic position of the United States began to be challenged by global competitors in virtually every market. In 1972 President Nixon opened the door to China, and by the end of that decade, Europe and Japan were once again world class manufacturers, Taiwan and South Korea were showing signs of industrial viability and China was entering the world market with a dedication that would change everything. Usually the competitive edge of the Asian countries came from their low labor costs which permitted them to price their products below comparable ones made in the United States. Thus began the gradual shrinking of the wages and salaries of our middle class whose employers had to compete. Making matters worse, US manufacturers enticed by special tax deals offered by the foreign countries, began to move entire plants from the US.

Then beginning in the 1980’s, the Personal Computer, Laptop and the Internet entered the marketplace. The world-wide adoption of various digital devices which included the cell phone, ATM’s, and robots that could answer and make phone calls started the digital revolution. By the end of the 1990’s, the creation of new digital applications and their adoption began to occur at an exponential rate. Recent examples include the I-Pod, I-Pad, Kindle, Google, Facebook, and Twitter, just to name a few that are less than five years old. This revolution is changing the nature of many jobs forever, and we ain’t seen nothin’ yet!!

For perspective, and to illustrate the size and magnitude of globalization during this period, the middle class has doubled on the planet within the span of one single generation. This is historic and requires us to rethink everything about markets and jobs, including the stress this demand will have on the supply and price of basic raw materials such as fossil fuels, mined elements, timber and even food. And this is just the beginning because vast numbers of Chinese, Indians and Brazilians are being added to the middle class as we write.
Prior to Obama’s rants, we have not heard much about the impact all of this has had on our middle class. That is because our middle class has been asjusting reasonabley well to their changing job and financial situation.The middle class was aided in their adjustment by: (1) the two income family, (2) the availablility of extremely low cost, good quality manufactured goods such as clothing, toys, electronic goods and even automobiles from Asia via Wal-Mart and the Internet and (3) the ability to draw on their assets for the cash needed to sustain their lifestyle while their salaries and wages remained static, declined or they had to take a lower paying job.

Regarding their assets, what happened was that during the decades of the 1980’s, 1990’s and the 2000’s, assets such as stocks, IRA’s and house values that were purchased during the 50’s and 60’s increased in value beyond anyone’s immagination. For example, a four bedroom home purchased in 1954 in a good neighborhood for $20,000 would probably have increased in value to about $140,000 by 2004 with normal inflation, but it turned out to be worth about $ 240,000 or $ 100,000 more.

Then came the financial crash of 2008. It wiped out these reserves overnight. The Dow Industrial Index fell from 14,000 to 7,000. Pensions based on IRA’s and 401ks owned by the middle class collapsed in front of the eyes. Home values declined to the point where the mortgage was often greater than the market value.

To summarize, the extraordinary level that wages of US manufacturing jobs reached during the three decades following WWII was a rare exception caused by the United States being essentially the only worldwide manufacturer left standing after the war. Then beginning about the end of the 1970’s, the US worldwide competitive position began a thirty year decline caused by a shift of jobs to oversea competitors. The problem has been exacerbated by the recent advent of the digital revolution which has eliminated even more jobs than overseas competition, and worse, it makes the workers unable to reenter the job market because the machines have replaced them or they lack the skills that are required to manage the machines. Basically, this means that our present workers, and this includes recent graduates, need to require new skills to compete globally. This is true no matter whether the field is manufacturing, education, health, book printing and publishing, ordinary business or the wide array of intellectual tasks. So, whether globalization and the digital revolution are good or bad, it must be recognized and fully understood that: “They are here, and they won’t go away!!

We can get through this, but we must avoid a war between the classes. Time itself will correct some of the problem because there are 80 million “baby boomers” that are becoming eligible for retirement and only 40 million of the next generation to take their places. The next phase therefore will be a shortage of workers. There already is a shortage of workers in the so-called fields of STEM (science, technology, engineering and math). Some workers can be retrained to fill these jobs, and we need to encourage college bound students to select majors in these fields. This especially includes females who make up to 60% of our college graduates.


However, there are steps that can be taken now to help those in the middle class who are most affected by the technology changes. The best example of a major one is to get on with the task of developing our own energy sources and stop buying oil from the Middle East. Conversion of our vast natural gas resources to replace gasoline, for example, would create millions of jobs without the middle class having to learn new skills. An ancillary benefit is that the price of natural gas produced in the United States need not be tied to what happens to the world price of oil.

To accomplish this, we must have strong leadership in our government positions, and we must insist that our political, media and educational personnel demonstrate that they understand and can communicate the true cause of what has happened to our middle class. This means that they must do what they can to help the middle class make the transition to the new global world in which we all live. If we continue to hear nothing from our leaders but class warfare talk, we will surely end up with riots in the streets.

It is despicable and unconscionable that political opportunists, including our President, would demagogue the problem the middle class faces by encouraging them to believe that the crash of 2008 was the fault of a conspiracy and that they are the victims. The President and his ilk continue this rabble rousing when they repeat the mantra that the “One percent are getting richer while the ninety nine percent of the population are getting poorer” with the implication that the one percent is causing the problem for the ninety percent. What is so outrageous and egregious is that their objective is a selfish one, namely to gain a political edge. This must be stopped!!

Our ideologue President and his know nothing entourage of czars are demonstrably proving they cannot do and maybe don’t want to do what needs to be done. There is only one answer: They must be removed from office!! This means that “We the People” must get out the Vote to remove Obama this November.

Perspective: How Political Correctness Impedes Problem Solving.

We are at a very serious junction in the life of the United States of America, but never have we been so unable to define our problems. Political Correctness has penetrated our discourse like a cancer. We are no longer able to call a spade a spade. The fact is that if you cannot agree on the words used to describe a problem, it is impossible to define a problem and, therefore, if you cannot define it you cannot solve it. The current debate about contraception provides a window into this language dilemma.

First, the background: As part of Obamacare the Obama Administration decided that, in order to protect her health, every female should have access to contraception, and that each employer should provide it. It came to pass that this mandate applied to the employees of the charitable associations of the Catholic Church that teaches that contraception should not be employed at all, ever. Since the First Amendment of the US Constitution guarantees the separation of Church and State, it followed that the government should not be able to mandate something that goes against the religious principles and teachings of a Church. Confronted with this dilemma, President Obama offered a compromise; the Church’s insurance company would be required to provide the contraceptives, gratis.

In essence what Obama was proposing was that the Catholic Church would pay their insurance company to provide contraception for the employees of the Church free. Legally this is “a distinction without a difference”? Since we all know that here is “no free lunch” it is likely that the insurance company will simply raise their premiums, and who will pay? You guessed it, none other than the Catholic Church! This subterfuge doesn’t pass the laugh test!!

This would have remained a legal debate about the Constitutionality of the plan, but along came Sandra Fluke, an attractive, intelligent, single, thirty year old law student enrolled at prestigious George Washington University, a Catholic school. She testified before Nancy Pelosi’s committee that it costs her $ 1000 per year for the contraceptive devices needed to protect her health, and that she would have to work all summer to earn this amount. Her plight so moved President Obama that he personally telephoned to help her though this traumatic time in her life.

The discussion went swiftly downhill from there. Suddenly the issue changed from one of interpretation of Constitutional Law to one where women were going to be deprived from obtaining contraceptives. And the Republicans were to blame.

Now, if we are talking about a woman’s health related to sexual activity, one would assume that we are talking about the risk of the woman’s contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD). A cursory review of the subject on WebMD reveals that: The Condom and Abstinence are the only effective methods to avoid STD. The Pill and the IUD, while preventing pregnancy, do not protect the user from the sexually transmitted diseases. On the same website, the reader can also learn about the side effects of the Pill, which includes pulmonary embolism and cervical cancer.

So, why in the world did the activists and the media try to make us believe that women are denied the availability of the one health protection device that prevents STD, namely the Condom, when everyone knows that it is readily available from every drug store and every service station’s rest room, at very low cost? The truth is that what women want is the convenience of the day before Pill, the day after Pill and the IUD, and they want them from their employers free of charge.

From the perspective of problem solving then, do we know what problem we were trying to solve? Of course not! STD is only preventable with condoms or abstinence; therefore, something else must be involved. It was subsequently revealed that the “something” was avoiding pregnancy, but since a condom will also prevent pregnancy, what is the problem?

The irony of this situation, and why this is so sad, is that all that President Obama’s carelessly and poorly thought through mandate will do is to encourage women to use devices which can expose them to extremely dangerous diseases while claiming concern about their health. Women have been and will continue to be able to purchase all the Pills and IUDs they want at reasonable cost, but they should be made aware of the adverse consequences. Clearly the absurdity of this provides more reason than ever to repeal Obamacare as soon as possible before it does more damage to our freedom and our health.

Finally, the principal purpose of writing this blog is to illustrate what damage Political Correctness is doing to our Society. If we continue to muck up our language such as we are doing in this case, we will never be able to define or solve problems. That is unfortunate because the problems this Nation faces right now are larger than we have ever experienced before and require the best of possible definitions.

Perspective: The Third Industial Revolution

Almost anyone who follows what is going on knows that our economy is going through a major structural change. The change involves the globalization of manufacturing, how markets are constructed, the impact of new and widespread communication technologies, the rapid increase of in the application of digital machines and the pressure to use renewable energy. In truth, we are at the beginning of the Third Industrial Revolution. The First Industrial Revolution was ushered in with the invention of the steam engine propelled by wood and coal. The Second by the automobile and with it the petroleum needed for gasoline. The Third Industrial Revolution will be based on our shift from fossil fuel energy. It will have a profound impact on everything we do and every way we manage our lives, our government, our planet and our culture.

The First Industrial Revolution, brought about the shift from cottage industries to factories, lasted about 100 years. Prior to the early 1800’s, cottage industries prevailed for centuries The shift to factories changed the way that goods were produced, where they were produced, how they were sold and who managed it. When the steam powered factories emerged, the folks who worked from their homes moved to where the factories were located. Usually this meant moving from the country to the city. This created a significant culture change.

The steam engine permitted the railroad to be developed, and this created new centers where the trains stopped to refuel and take on water. Subsequently, factories located at these centers. Since the railroads needed improved communication about conditions on the tracks ahead, the telegraph was rapidly installed. This led citizens who lived along the rail systems to have the most up to date information ever. These new factories and railroads and related equipment required a different skill set than the cottage industries. This meant that a better education system was needed which led to our public school system.

The Second Industrial Revolution involved the internal combustion engine which required a petrochemical fuel. This revolution is in its second century, and it will continue until we run out of the fossil fuel needed to drive it. The discovery of oil and how to get it was all that was needed for the automobile to really replace the horse. Auto travel on the crude dirt roads was especially difficult to travel in bad weather. This led to paving the roads, and in the 1950’s construction of the interstate highway system was undertaken. With that development motor transportation took off. In short order railroads felt the stress as semi-trailer trucks were found to be more versatile for hauling the nation’s goods than rail. Home owners no longer tied to the cities, moved to the suburbs with their new transportation vehicles. Consequently, the railroads lost both freight and passenger business. One by one the railroads went out of business. Finally the US government subsidized what was left under the name Amtrak.

For the farm it meant that larger and larger tractors could be used for tilling, planting and harvesting. For the family farm in the 1930’s a man following a horse drawn single plow on foot was the way a 50 to 100 acre farm was tilled. By contrast a tractor can pull ten or more plows. This in turn has led to ever larger farms and fewer and fewer farm hands. The country is dotted with barns left rotting as small 20 cow dairy farms were put out of business by huge farms with 1000 or more cows milked by machine 24 hours per day. In the early 1900’s, 40 out of 100 persons in the labor force were employed by farms. Today, the number is less than 2.

The shift from cottage industry and the horse for transportation required a different way to structure businesses and different ways to manage personnel, communicate, keep records and utilize capital. In the old days, a farmer or cottage industry entrepreneur could obtain capital via a loan from his local bank, and his employee was his apprentice. In the new industrial world, the capital for a railroad or a factory was so much larger that small local banks could not supply it. Similarly, the large number of employees in the factories required a major change in how to train and manage them. The result of the need to manage large numbers of people and huge amounts of capital required business to be restructured from the horizontal system of the cottage industry and small family farm to a vertical one. The larger the company grew the more clerical, secretarial personnel and supervision was required to keep track of the critical details of the businesses. As some businesses became more efficiently organized than others, they bought out smaller ones or merged making fewer and much larger companies until today there is a relatively small group of giant organizations in the major commercial fields from oil and gas production and distribution, to banks, to manufacturing, to healthcare and even education. Moreover, during the past three to four decades we have seen them become increasingly global in their outlook, planning, organization and marketing.
It may be interesting to review the various energy sources that have been historically available. Prior to the invention of the steam engine, horse, mules, oxen and even people provided the energy for moving things. People lighted their homes with candles or whale oil. Their homes were mostly heated with wood. The steam for the steam engine developed by James Watt in 1769 was generated by burning wood and later coal. This invention more than anything else permitted the development of the First Industrial Revolution. The first fuel for the internal combustion engine was ethanol. The leading fuel for lighting was "camphene" (sometimes simply called "burning fluid"). It was a blend of high-proof ethyl alcohol with 20 to 50 percent turpentine to color the flame and a few drops of camphor oil to mask the turpentine smell. Alcohol was an important mainstay for distilleries, and many sold between 35 and 80 percent of their product to the fuel market. In the 30 or 40 years before oil drilling began in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1858, crude oil found on the earth’s surface was being distilled to produce products for lighting. This included gasoline, but its high volatility and risk of explosion prevented it from being used for lighting. Gradually; however. it was evaluated as a fuel for the internal combustion engine, but it took many years before such giants as Henry Ford became convinced it was a better fuel than ethanol.

The electric light bulb discovered by Thomas Edison in 1879 changed lighting forever. But it was the discovery of alternating current that permitted the fantastic expansion of the use of electricity for all uses. It wasn’t long before steam engines in factories were replaced by electric motors. The turbines to generate the electricity were originally powered by water via dams such as Hoover Dam, or waterfalls such as Niagara Falls. By 1884 electricity could be generated anywhere by using steam to run the turbines. The original fuel for these steam electric plants was coal; then some plants shifted to oil and even to natural gas. All three are employed to this day, and now nuclear energy has been added as a source of steam.

We have been living in the Second Industrial Revolution for more than a century, and it has made possible the globalization of manufacturing and marketing which in turn has made possible the fabulous increase of the size and lifestyle of the planet’s middle class. Amazingly, most of this occurred in the last quarter of the twentieth century, and the expansion continues despite the rise of the oil price from about $3 per barrel 35 years ago to about $ 105 today.

However, what will undoubtedly limit the life of the Second Industrial Revolution is the supply of fossil fuel. The amount of fossil fuel consumed at this time is about equal to the current supply, and it is generally agreed that new discoveries will not satisfy the rising global demand. In fact, the supply is expected to decline. This will cause a rise in price. Therefore, at some point in the near future, non-fossil fuel sources of energy will become economically competitive. These sources include, solar, wind, geothermal, ocean currents, hydroelectric and nuclear.

The Third Industrial Revolution, which is in its infancy, is based on two inescapable driving forces: (1) the diminishing supply of fossil fuels and (2) the Internet. A new book entitled “The Third Industrial Revolution, How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy” by Jeremy Rifkin, describes how Internet technology and renewable energy are merging to create the Third Industrial Revolution. The book cites numerous examples of “green” electrical energy applications that are being developed world-wide, and according to Rifkin, some are even economically viable now. Rifkin feels that we must accelerate this change by adding government laws and regulations to convert our use of fossil fuels to renewable sources in order to avoid the catastrophic climate change our use of fossil fuel is allegedly having.

Rifkin’s basic concept is that hundreds of millions of persons on the planet will produce solar energy in their homes, offices and commercial facilities and then share information about supplies with others via an energy internet, similar to the way information is created and shared online. The idea is that solar panels will be placed upon virtually every building. Wind mills will appear where there is wind and available land. Geothermal and ocean currents will also be tapped. The organization of these new energy sources will most likely be controlled locally. For example, it will probably be common from time to time for a building owner to generate more solar electricity than needed for his own building. That person will want to sell the excess. The Internet, already in existence and worldwide, will be the communication mechanism for information about the excess availability of electricity. One can even imagine selling electricity to a neighbor via e-bay or some such mechanism. Thus, you can see that the supply and marketing of electricity will not likely be carried out by major international organizations but by individuals and local communities. This structure will be horizontal rather than the vertical. And it will probably be the pattern world-wide.

The idea is that new electrical energies will be interconnected by grids, and if more electricity is created than needed, it can be converted to hydrogen via the electrolysis of water. Now, electrolysis would only be viable as a means to “store” electricity during the times when the sun or wind would produce more electricity than the grid could use. The hydrogen fuel can also be used to produce electricity later when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine, or it can be used for fuel to propel vehicles. These ideas are not pie-in-the sky dreams; the technology has been demonstrated, and in some cases commercial installations exist. However, few if any such installations can compete at the current price of fossil fuel without government subsidies.

This new paradigm, called the Third Industrial Revolution, provides a pattern for how we will transition from fossil fuel based energy to non-fossil fuel energy. But it is going to present the global economy with enormous challenges, both good and bad. For example, we are most certainly going to require more nuclear energy to supply electricity and probably to propel our trains and machinery to till our fields. This would be a logical extension of our current use of nuclear power to transport our submarines and ships. But we will have to learn how to use breeder reactors safely and find suitable means for the reuse or safe permanent disposal of the nuclear waste.

It is hard to predict exactly the price of fossil fuel at which point these non-fossil fuel base energies become viable alternatives. What is certain is that when the fossil supplies are depleted, the equivalent price will be infinite. At that point any source of energy becomes economically viable. The trick is to determine just what course of action governments and industry should follow to have the right technologies in place when the supply and/or price of fossil materials become a major problem.

Unfortunately for such a sound planning path, the environmentalists cannot wait! They argue and are convinced that man-made global warming exists, will cause catastrophic climate change and is caused by fossil fuel consumption. They want to stop its use by taxing and regulating it out of existence immediately. They are willing, in fact eager, to upset our life style and supporting businesses right now by artificially increasing the cost of fossil fuel energy. Regulations to cause such an event would have an horrific impact on the global economy. It would be much better to allow the supply versus demand formula to provide the incentive to replace fossil fuel. This would permit a more gradual change which could more realistically be accommodated by the market. What is important to be sure that we do now is to properly fund the required research to develop the new energy technologies so we have them available in time.

Based on the predicted future decline of fossil fuel supplies, it is clear that we will enter the Third Industrial Revolution whether we want to or not! The question is what kind of world will it be? Both of the prior Industrial Revolutions brought major changes in energy sources, having to learn how to use new technologies and new locations of commercial operations. These changes caused major economic and cultural upheavals as populations had to relocate. We are already seeing some of these same factors at play as we enter the Third Industrial Revolution.

The impact on global food supplies and prices caused by the prohibitive high cost of petroleum may be the greatest problem society will have to face. Currently, ethanol and bio-fuels are proudly added to the list of renewable fuels. But when we do not have or can’t afford petrochemical fertilizers or fuel to till, plant, harvest and process corn and other vegetation required to produce these fuels, food prices will doubtless skyrocket. This will cause a huge change in lifestyle. Amazingly no one is talking or writing about this despite the fact that the population of the planet has just reached seven billion, and the forecast is that we will add another billion within the next 15 years.

In summary, the concept of the “Third Industrial Revolution” provides a realistic vision of how we might cope with the diminishing supplies of fossil fuel and a template upon which to plan for the time when supplies of fossil fuels are inadequate for the global demand. However, there are lots of questions yet to be answered. In addition we probably don’t have all of the required technology to make the transition practicable. Therefore, Rifkin’s belief that we must force this now with government intervention is wrong and not useful. Government can be a helpful partner, but unfortunately it has a history of intervening in markets with deleterious consequences. One thing is certain, this next transition will be equally as complex if not much more complex and significant than the first two Industrial Revolutions. The economic and sociological impact of these radical changes will be immense and will affect every segment of the global society. A major question will be whether we have adequate food supplies. We have time to make the transition in an orderly fashion using market forces to help make the decisions each of us will have to make. However, we had better begin the planning phase now before it is too late. Finally, we have made this kind of transition twice before and have that experience to draw upon. We will be up to the task!




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Perspective: Self-Control

Research conducted by psychologists at numerous universities reveals that most personal and social problems derive from the failure of self-control. Examples include: compulsive spending and borrowing, under achievement in school, procrastination, alcohol and drug abuse, unhealthy diet, chronic anxiety and explosive anger. Poor self-control correlates with just about every kind of personal trauma including: losing friends, being fired, getting divorced and winding up in prison. It is interesting to note that in a recent world-wide survey of over one million persons, their lists of personal virtues included: honesty, kindness, humor, creativity and bravery and so forth but not self-control. However, when these same persons were asked to list their failings, self-control was at the top of the list.

In a long-term study of 1000 children in New Zealand from birth to age thirty two, the researchers found that the children who exhibited the most self control in childhood grew up to have better physical health, fewer sexually transmitted diseases, more stable marriages, higher education and better paying jobs. By contrast more than 40 % of the children with the very lowest level of self-control had criminal convictions by age 32 versus 12% of those children showing the highest degree of self-control.

Self-control keeps one from being swayed from the right course by evil forces which can come from either outside or inside the person. We used to believe that a conscience in an individual was a vital component needed to set the right course, and society spent a large amount of time and money developing consciences and self-control in children. This began at virtually the time the child arrived and continued until the child was an adult about eighteen years of age. In the early days when people resided in villages or farms and everyone knew everyone, virtue was enforced by public disgrace. Nathaniel Hawthorn’s book “The Scarlet Letter” regarding adultery comes to mind. The Ten Commandments also helped keep one on the strait and narrow. The ultimate goal was for each person to develop self-control because it was believed that those who learned how to utilize self-control would be more useful, reliable, morally grounded and responsible citizens.

Beginning in the 1960’s, however, the ideas of a moral conscience and self-control were weakened as society began to celebrate self indulgence. “If it feels good, just do it”. Concurrently, social scientists began to seek the causes for lack of consciences and self-control. They concluded that the causes were poverty, depreciation and failures of the economy, the environment or political influences. In short, the idea was that the individual was not responsible. In fact the individual was a victim. Moreover, we started to believe that we must be careful not to harm a child’s self-esteem, so we rewarded them for nearly anything and everything they did regardless of the quality of the child’s performance

Now, shock of shock, we suddenly are learning that major leaders of our society seem to lack moral compasses and self-control. Do the names Enron, Adelphia , Bernie Madoff, unscrupulous Wall Street derivative purveyors, etc. come to mind? This has prompted our major business schools to add ethics courses to those of business management. Hello!!! They have to be kidding!!! Haven’t’ they heard of the adage, “You can’t teach old dog new tricks?”

A new book entitled: “Willpower” sheds a whole new light on the subject of self-control. The book shows that Willpower is the mechanism that individuals employ to keep them on the right course. The existence of willpower, from whence it comes and how to employ it to maximum benefit are the major parts of the research reported in the book. The researchers have found that improving willpower is the best way to a better life. But willpower is used for other purposes like making decisions. So, willpower is under constant stress. Here are a few highlights of the many suggestions the book offers for the times when Willpower is needed.

Set Clear Goals:
The authors state that the first step in self-control is to set clear goals. Self control without goals would be like trying to diet without knowing the caloric content of individual foods. However, one should avoid setting goals that conflict with other goals, and it is important that one not set too many goals.

Willpower is Like a Muscle:
Willpower can become fatigued from overuse. When that happens we lose self-control. The researchers learned that willpower gives the strength to persevere, and we lose self-control as willpower is depleted. They further affirm that, like muscles, mental energy is also fueled by glucose.

Strengthening Will Power:
Although willpower is not actually a muscle, research has shown that willpower can be strengthened. There are several possible ways this can work. One that works and would be easy to do is to use perfect posture, e.g. “sit up straight”. Persons participating in the experiments who consciously overcame their habit of slouching, showed significantly greater self-control.

Decision Fatigue:
It turns out that decision making saps one’s willpower. The trick is to limit the number of major decisions one might attempt to make while attempting to achieve a goal.

Procrastination:
Each of us has a tendency to procrastinate at one time or another. What happens when we are faced with a hard task, including ones with deadlines, is that we don’t want to tackle the hard task. So, suddenly we discover a large pile of stuff that we have been putting off, and we dive into that rather than to face the primary job. As a result that we have no energy left to work on the major job, and consequently the job gets put off again. Or if it must be accomplished in the prescribed timeframe, the quality is poor and in some cases completely unacceptable.

The suggestion from the research is that when confronted with the major task and its timetable, STOP, DO NOTHING! It is better to stop, maybe take a nap and then tackle the major task when refreshed. Everyone will be happier. You because you got it done and on time, and your boss, because you got it done and on time and with high quality to boot!!

Self-Esteem Versus Self-Control:
For a generation psychologists, including those who were involved in the studies reported in the book, operated on the principle that we need to protect the very fragile young human and must be especially careful not to destroy its self esteem. While growing up society rewarded them for everything and anything. Even failure was rewarded on the basis that the child “tried”. The idea was that if self-esteem were developed in a child, performance would follow.

The authors report that when the psychologists received the data from the research, they were shocked to find that their theories were wrong. They and society at large clearly had the idea backward. The research shows that performance creates self-esteem, not the other way around. Moreover, those persons who participated in the research who earned self-esteem had higher levels of self-control.

Supporting the research is anecdotal evidence from real life that finds that mollycoddled children, now in their thirties, are landing in the psychiatrists’ offices. What has happened is that they are now in the real world where one is rewarded only if one actually achieves a realistic goal. Having reached adulthood, the child can’t handle the rejection the real world delivers for failure to achieve real goals. Thus, they visit their psychologists to try to “find themselves”.

The bottom line conclusion is that self-esteem must be earned and not bestowed if a child is to become a strong, reliable and responsible adult with built in self-control What a shock that is!! The book dedicates a whole chapter to this issue; “Raising Strong Children: Self-Esteem versus Self-Control”, and it may be the authors’ greatest contribution.

The book, “Willpower”, is chock-a-block full of research data gathered from controlled experiments conducted over the past two or three decades. It breaks willpower into its physiological and psychological components and how to use it. The book combines clearly described scientific experiments, practical advice and a path forward from the morass we find our selves in. Based on their findings, there is hope for our society. It is a must read for parents who have the job of raising the next generation as well as anyone who would like to have more self-control.

Perspective: Where Did the Jobs Go

We are slowly recovering from the Great Recession, but it is called a jobless one. So, why are jobs not being created? A new book entitled, “Race Against the Machine by Erick Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, two professors from MIT, explains what is happening. It turns out that machines based on the new digital technology have caused more US job losses than any other factor including overseas competition.

Machines based on digital technology have been replacing humans in many phases for quite a while, but we have barely noticed it. Now, we are entering the phase where the introduction of new complex digital applications is going faster and faster as shown.

Pilot less Airplanes
Driverless Cars
Language Translation
Twitter
Facebook
U-tube
the I-Pad II
the I-Pad
the I-Phone
the I-Pod
IBM's Watson wins Jeopardy
ATM machine, Internet, e-mail, cell phone, digital cameras,

The authors point out that Information Technology (IT) is transforming manufacturing, distribution, retailing, media, finance, law, medicine, research, management, marketing and almost every other economic sector. The book’s sub-title, “How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy”, describes the scope and magnitude of the change. The authors state that the rate of improvement in the digital technology and the adoption of it are exponential.

Mathematically speaking, exponential growth starts very small, so small that the growth is practically indistinguishable, and then, once it starts growing, it grows faster and faster, so fast that it shoots right up through the top of the graph.

Pattern recognition and voice activated instructions used to be the domain of the human mind, but machines are catching up and in some cases exceeding the unique capability of the human mind. Currently, digital technology is doubling every 18 months, and the experts have no idea how far this development can go. However, they are convinced that computer hardware, software and networks will become ever more powerful, swift and will have an ever increasing impact on jobs, skills and the economy. Moreover, adoption is worldwide, including China, and there will be no way to stop that. Worse for humans, the race has just begun, and we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

In a word, investment in machines is replacing and will continue to replace investment in humans. The authors claim that: “We are in the throes of a Great Restructuring and our technologies are racing ahead while many of our skills and organizations are lagging behind.” This book is a must read.

Pattern recognition and voice activated instructions used to be the domain of the human mind, but machines are catching up and in some cases exceeding the unique capability of the human mind. Currently, digital technology is doubling every 18 months, and the experts have no idea how far this development can go. However, they are convinced that computer hardware, software and networks will become ever more powerful, swift and will have an ever increasing impact on jobs, skills and the economy. Moreover, adoption is worldwide, including China, and there will be no way to stop that. Worse for humans, the race has just begun, and we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

The reason for the acceptance of the digital technology is that the machines perform better than humans. They make far fewer mistakes; they work 24/7, don’t get sick or require maternity leave, don’t take vacations, don’t join unions and go on strike and don’t demand higher wages, health care insurance or pensions. And the machines have become more applicable and less and less expensive as the technology has improved.

A couple of examples of whole industries being impacted are worth noting. You have doubtless noticed that your dentist and doctor now read x-rays on their computers. Digital has replaced an entire industry that used to be based on silver halide photographic prints. Today, Eastman Kodak, the once giant company that created much of the film technology, teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. They either did not see digital coming or treated it as a passing fancy that would have no major impact upon their silver based business.

A second example was discussed in an earlier blog, namely, the new electronic book
(e-book) invented by Amazon called the Kindle. The Kindle is four years old this month, and is already replacing the traditional paper-based book. The e-book has the potential of eliminating all the human work involved in manufacturing and marketing a paper book from cutting the tree, converting it to paper, printing the paper, binding the book including the publishing and subsequent shipment of the book to stores and libraries. The number of human jobs that will be eliminated from this one application alone is gigantic.

Given the information about the degree of penetration of digital technology into our daily lives and the number of human jobs displaced, one might expect that it would be a main topic of discussion in Media, Business, Institutional and Government publications; but there is virtually no mention of the impact of digital technology anywhere.

Instead, we hear from our Media, Congress and especially our President that evil, greedy, immoral and possibly illegal Wall Street has somehow caused Main Street to lose income while an ever increasing amount of remuneration is going to Wall Street employees. In short, the argument goes, “the rich are getting richer at the expense of the Main Street middle class who are getting poorer”. We are told over and over that the Occupy Wall Street movement reflects his mood.

However, based on what the authors of “Race the Machine” are telling us, Wall Street has nothing to do with what is causing the Great Restructuring. Since we now know how broadly and pervasive the adoption of job-stealing digital technology is and how businesses, government, non-profit institutions and we as individuals are taking advantage of it, we have found the culprit. In the words of that famous possum of comic strip days, Pogo, “We have met the enemy, and they is us.”

In summary, why the recovery from the Great Recession has been jobless is now clear.

1. The jobs are being taken by machines, and they won’t be coming back.


2. Because capital investment in and maintenance of machines is low, employers have an incentive to continue to replace humans.


3. Humans will not win the race against the machine given that the machine will be able to take over more and more human activities, and as the digital technology expands to do ever more complex work, the rate of human replacement will grow exponentially.


4. Humans will have to team up with machines to survive.
   
   The impact of this phenomenon is immense and must be addressed very soon with meaningful programs because it is true that Humans without jobs will not be able to purchase the goods that are made by robots and will not be paying the taxes required to sustain social programs. Consequently, the owners of the robots will become richer and the replaced humans will become poorer.
   
   Creating class warfare by blaming this on those who own and/or have the knowledge to manage the robots is not only irresponsible but extremely dangerous. We already see mobs in the streets. Therefore, it is urgent that our leaders grasp the significance of this structural shift and begin to develop plans to deal effectively with it.
   
   How to Begin:
   The job creators should be divided into three phases: (1)Corporate and Institutional Businesses that can afford to purchase and manage digital technology, (2)Entrepreneurial Businesses Developing New Digital Applications and (3)Small and Start-up Businesses who cannot afford or don’t need to install or manage digital technology.
   
   Major Corporate or Institutional Businesses These firms are already adopting the latest digital technology so they want workers who have the skills required to utilize and manage the digital equipment and programs. This means college and advance degrees in what is called STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) and will require constant upgrading of skills. The authors call this “Racing with the Machine”. These humans will earn good salaries, and if they keep up with the latest developments they will remain fully employed.
   
   What This Group Needs:

• Taxes and regulations reduced to create a Level Playing Field with foreign competition.


• To fill the shortage of workers with STEM degrees (Science, Technology,Engineering,Math)

1. Provide some financial assistance to students taking STEM courses


2. Encourage females who make up 60% of college graduates to take and stay with STEM majors


3. Encourage foreign students educated in STEM to stay and become citizens

Entrepreneurial Businesses Developing New Digital Applications: These are businesses that are creating new applications for digital technology that will extend the uses beyond Facebook and Twitter. They will attract the very smart extremely creative persons, and it will not matter what degree of education they have.

What this Group Needs:

• As little governmental interference as possible

Small and Start-Up Businesses: These firms are too small to afford to purchase and man digital technology or where digital technology cannot currently compete with humans. They will be able to employ those who have normal high school, trade school and junior college as well as college diplomas. A partial list of those in this category includes all of the trades such as plumbing, electrical, carpentry, construction, auto mechanics as well as health care and some phases of education

What This Group Needs:

• Government officials to understand that this group creates about three quarters of new jobs


• Government to create a business friendly atmosphere to reduce uncertainty so that the businesses can plan for the future.


• Stop talking about taxing these Sub-chapter S companies who gross $250,000/year and create a sensible tax structure that has longevity


• Reduce and eliminate unnecessary regulations


• Repeal Obmacare and replace it with small-business friendly new healthcare or at lease provide a waiver to remove the fear of hiring that this business group has.


• Government to focus on settling the real estate bubble so construction can begin again
  
  If financial assistance is needed for those thrown out of work by the new digital machines, the present unemployment insurance program should be used. But the recipients of such assistance should be required to take courses that would permit them to compete in the new markets or they should be required to perform meaningful work for the community that the community cannot afford to staff.
  
  If our government would undertake such programs, we would see economic activity increase in proportion to the confidence instilled in businesses, and jobs would begin to grow again. The revenues lost as machines take tax payers jobs would be replaced by additional taxpayers who will manage the machines, those who create new machines and those whose jobs are immune from machine take over.
  
  

PERSPECTIVE: WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO COMMON SENSE?

There used to be a general understanding of how Nature worked, and it was called “Common Sense”. However, beginning with the “boomer” generation, we began to depart from the accepted principles of Natural Law, and the new communication technologies have exponentially accelerated the pace of change so much so that our grandchildren’s generation lives a separate life from either their parents or grandparents. Small wonder then that there is minimal transfer of wisdom from those earlier generations to the new. In other words there is a rapidly diminishing supply of “Common Sense”, and today’s children are at greater risk than ever because of it.

To gain a perspective on the impact, imagine the apprentice knowing more about how to hitch up a team of horses than the master farmer. You can’t! But today the kids know infinitely more about the new communication technologies than anyone older. They are the modern apprentices! So, from their standpoint, if you don’t know how to program a VCR or how to use Facebook, Twitter or an I-Pad II without their help, what would you, as an adult, know about almost anything, including how to raise them? This generational disconnect is historic, unprecedented and very scary for our society!

It is a fact that our grandchildren speak a different language than their parents and grandparents, and the older generations have no clue how to use the new technology. Moreover, they probably would not understand what the grandkids are texting and tweeting anyway because of the short-hand language they use. On top of this, today’s parents worry more about their children’s self esteem than did the grandparent’s generation. Modern parents have a penchant for bestowing self esteem on their kids by rewarding every little event regardless of the level of performance, rather than having the child earn it. This makes the child feel that he or she is more invulnerable than a typical teenager would feel which places them at greater risk than any generation that preceded them.

The grandparent generation was exposed directly to Nature including germs without penicillin, poorly set broken limbs from a horse kick, the unsanitary conditions of having no indoor plumbing, unheated bedrooms and the out door toilet. We used to know how Nature worked because we lived close to the land and had first-hand knowledge of it. We also knew that self esteem had to be earned, and that one did not bring a wild animal into the house to live and then expect it to be able to survive if we turned it loose.

Today we award self-esteem to our children, even when they fail, and our government provides unending financial assistance via food stamps, unearned tax credits, and low cost Section 8 housing, even to the indolent, thinking that we are doing a good thing, no matter how contrary to Nature it may be. By the way, recent research is showing that many of those children who were given unearned rewards to protect their self esteem are now in their thirties and in the psychiatrists’ offices. The real world is not rewarding them, and they are confused. I’m shocked!


Three generations ago when current grandparents and great grandparents were kids, most of the US population lived in rural areas. During that time most of the farms were powered by horses, mules or oxen. It was rare for a farmer to own a tractor. Kids, even kids whose parents were not farmers, were taught how to hitch up a team of horses, and it was common for them to actually drive the team to do farm work as they worked along side their farm kid playmates. If you think about it that was the way that farming was done for centuries. And there was common knowledge about how to do this as well as how to live without electricity, telephones, central heating or indoor plumbing. There was a right and wrong way to do almost anything from hitching the horses, to using the outdoor “bathroom” to how to avoid the hazards associated with inappropriate behavior. And the understanding of all of this was held in common at virtually all levels of society.

By contrast, today’s children are exposed to none of this. They live in a bubble protected from the direct impact of raw Nature starting with inoculations at the cradle against virtually any disease you can think of and broken bones that can be set almost as an out-patient and living with all the modern conveniences. But in addition to being exposed to the normal idiosyncrasies of Nature, kids today are surrounded by drugs, alcohol and promiscuous sex starting from the age of middle school. The grandparent’s generation was rarely exposed to these new risks, and use of them was verboten. Anyone caught doing it was ostracized and often severely punished.

I once had an experience that epitomizes how new technology can cause us to abandon all the principles learned from centuries. As a DuPont salesman I was promoting a polymer used to make a water-based paint. One day I called on the Technical Director of a paint company in South Bend, Indiana. On his desk lay a sheet of white material he told me was paint made from our product that blew off a house in South Bend. I rubbed my thumb on the surface of the sheet and it came up white from the old paint. We agreed that since the public believed that the new paint was a “miracle” paint, so easy to use etc., that they felt free to abandon the centuries of knowledge about what one must to do to apply a satisfactory and durable coating of paint. It took a decade for the public to learn that this principle applied to the water-base paints as well as the oil base ones.

So, can we regain a “Common Sense” about how Nature works? I am not sure in this Nanny State Society with Political Correctness changing all the definitions and dominating the language that we can, but here are a few guidelines that might help.

It takes a lot of living to understand fully how Nature works. Ergo, children do not know more than their elders, and the elders need to understand this.
Children unguided by their elders are vulnerable and exposed to the dangers present in Nature. Evil and the hazards of living exist and someone has to teach the young how to live safely.
The underlying principles of Nature should be taught at home and at school beginning at an early age.

We can sympathize with modern parents who try to raise this “new child” because the four pillars that supported the grandparents generation when they were raising children are no longer there. These were:

Parents knew that the parents job was, namely to be a parent not a pal, and that the primary job was to build a “conscience” into their children so they could be a responsible citizens by age eighteen.

The neighbor believed that they could be and should be a partner with the parent. If the neighbor caught a child about to make a mistake, the neighbor felt free to stop the child and bring the child to the parent. Usually the parent would reward the neighbor with a cup of coffee or tea.

The school felt that they were a full partner with the parent and handled the child as the parent would want. If the child got into trouble the parent backed the school and usually added punishment to whatever the school had imposed..

Most of the children went to Sunday School where the lessons of right and wrong, how to behave and how to become a responsible citizen were reinforced.

In one generation all four pillars have disappeared. The parent thinks he/she should be a pal, the neighbor stands aside for fear of being sued by the parent, the school knows it will be sued if it does anything that upsets the parent and hardly any child goes to Sunday School on a regular basis. Since the grandparents do not usually live in the same town as the grandchildren and since the grandparents are not fluent in the new communication technologies, there is little if any everyday contact. Moreover, should there be gatherings where children and adults are present, the grandchildren are busy texting friends or are listening to their music via their I-Pod. So, there is little if any communication between the generations even in family gatherings.

Is it possible for the adult generation to share information with the child that will provide some protection as they enter the larger world? Unfortunately, many parents overwhelmed by their own problems, have abandoned the job, and are letting the children fend for themselves. This means the children are getting their information from their peers, who incidentally are as ignorant of how Nature works as the child itself.

Many, including writers such as Anthony E. Wolfe, Ph.D., feel that the child will have to find out how things work for themselves. His book, titled, “Get out of My Life, But First Drive Me and Cheryl to the Mall” provides a “Parents Guide to the New Teenager”. In this book Wolfe suggests that the parent should “let go”. He recognizes that the dangers the teenagers are exposed to are real, and he has many helpful suggestions for how to communicate with teenagers. However, Wolfe’s position is that the teens are out there in the real world on their own, and parents should accept this. How a parent is to do this is challenging and very scary! They would not let their pet out of the house if they knew that there were predators out there who would love to have it for lunch. Yet we are leaving the children out there where there are real predators and real hazards.

The question I am raising is how can the idea of being safe at all times and in all places be burned into their brains? We have seen that the grandparents are not there to do it and the parents have either abandoned their post or cannot find a way to communicate with their teenagers. So, can anyone communicate with the teenager about safety?

I believe that there is a way! Most companies these days stress safety. They have programs and regularly scheduled meetings with their employees to emphasize the importance of safety on the job, and they go beyond that to include discussions about the everyday safety issues related to the car and home. Persons present at these meeting will share real live risks they have experienced.. The group will then discuss possible ways to foresee and identify these risks afore hand and then they will talk about appropriate defensive actions that can be taken.

The reason for this dedication to the subject and use of Company time is to create a safety state-of-mind in their employees. They want the employee to think how to be safe at all times and in all places. And it works! Persons who experience this training will attest that being exposed to regularly scheduled safety discussions has armed them with knowledge that helps them to avoid impending danger for the rest of their lives.

So perhaps we can create a safety program for our teenagers. The schools should be able to help, and parents should talk to the school administrators to see what they can offer. Whenever there is a party or a sleepover at a person’s home, perhaps a parent or a teenager who is a leader could lead a discussion about an issue of safety the teenagers may be currently experiencing. If the child and his friends are embarrassed to speak in front of the parent, the parent should excuse him or herself, and let the kids go at it. Another possibility is to have routine safety messages texted to their phones by someone the child respects and would listen to. That person might be a coach, teacher, movie star or respected peer. How to set this up needs to be explored.
We must do something to help struggling parents who want their children to grow up safely in this strange new world, and we desperately must do something for the sake and safety of the children! And maybe, just maybe, there will come the day when the sense about how Nature really works will once again be held in common.