Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Perspective Letter to Santa 2015


            Dear Santa

 

Do not bring any toys this year.

For the World has too much to fear.

Fiddling with text, I-Pad or Smart Phone

Makes it too easy to just postpone

Dealing with the problems of the day

Which require all of us to pray

For perfect and correct solutions

Not frivolous useless delusions.

 

Machines that take jobs and pay no wage

Put most workers in a state of rage.

Term Islamic terrorist avoid

For fear Muslims become paranoid.

Riots about how Black Lives matter

Makes us avoid cities, and scatter.

As to the high rate of school drop out

We just don’t care what it is about.

 

So what is it we need this season?

A Leader who knows how to reason!

One who knows how to talk to and reach,
Every black, white, man, woman, each.

A person whose word is absolute bond

Not stated to make listeners fond.

One who can speak to other leaders

Who does not act like a first grade reader.

 

Yes, we will forgoe getting our toys,

And we will not cry or make a noise

We need someone to be respected

Not one who leaves problems neglected.

Please send us some one who will inspire

Not cause us anguish or us perspire.

A Leader with a strong constitution,

And who respects our Constitution

 

      Wayne and Mary Lee

         Christmas 2015

 

 

 

 

Monday, November 30, 2015

Perspective: Bill Gates Takes on Climate Change


 

 

 

 

 

 

In the November issue of the Atlantic magazine, Bill Gates is interviewed by James Bennet who quotes Gates as saying that “we need an energy miracle” to propel the world beyond fossil fuels fast enough to outpace potentially cataclysmic climate change. This is a cogent piece with a new perspective on what realistically can be done to deal with Climate Change keyed to carbon dioxide formed from the combustion of fossil fuels. The essence of Bill Gates position is that we need an energy miracle to accomplish the CO2 reduction goals the government is setting. The immensity of our use of CO2 producing fuels, the growing demand for energy, the low cost and plentiful supply of fossil fuels and our reluctance to build nuclear electrical plants, makes moving to a new energy paradigm big a hill to climb. Gates recommends that we invest in R& D to release the Country’s entrepreneurial energy to solve some of these complex issues. That the clean energy goal the environmentalists insist on is so gigantic is why Bill Gates says it will take a miracle to achieve it.

 Here is a summary of the points Gates makes.
  • It is unprecedented to change an infrastructure this large this quickly. Moreover, it is not clear to Gates that there is anything in sight that could significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

  • Clean energy enthusiasts make unrealistic claims such as that solar energy has the same cost as hydrocarbon based energy. When the sun shines solar energy can compete with hydrocarbon energy, but when it doesn’t, hydrocarbons have to be on standby. It is expensive to have a huge hydrocarbon energy infrastructure on standby to be used intermittently, and battery technology is not cheep.
 
  • To get to clean energy is a global challenge. Carbon dioxide is not a local pollutant. It mixes in the global atmosphere. It doesn’t matter where the hydrocarbon energy is produced in China, India or elsewhere. 

  • Heating levels have not exactly tracked the climate models. This gives the skeptics reason to wait and see, thus not providing a political will to drop everything to tackle this goal.

Let’s examine what is involved. A century ago our energy came from the combustion of biomass and coal with a smidgeon from hydroelectricity. Today more than 90% of our energy comes from biomass, coal, oil, and natural gas, all of which produce CO2 when combusted. The remaining energy comes from hydroelectric and nuclear with only a smidgeon coming from renewables such as solar and wind.  

The amount of CO2 produced relates to the amount of carbon in the fuel being burned. The highest carbon is in coal, the next is oil and biomass with natural gas having the least. The amount of heat produced relates to both the carbon and hydrogen content. Here again natural gas is the best of the fossil fuels. Its chemical formula is one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms per molecule, CH4.Moreover, natural gas contains no sulfur or other toxic substances released when biomass, coal or oil are combusted. 

This chart shows the source of the US energy 100 years ago versus today and forecasts what it probably will be in 2030.The “amount” column reflects the increased energy used and how energy demand has grown and will probably grow with population growth. Thus, for example, 2015 has four times the population of 1915, and population in 2030 will be about 30% greater than 2015. This chart also shows the amount of CO2 created from the combustion of the various energy sources.

 
 
 
ENERGY SOURCE VERSUS CO2 PRODUCTION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Projected Energy to 2030
 
 
 
1915
1915
2015
2015
 
     No    Change
 
             Change
 
Source
CO2*
Energy
CO2
Energy
CO2 
 
Energy
CO2
Energy
CO2
 
 
Amount
 
Amount
 
 
Amount
 
Amount
 
Renewable
0
0
0
4
0
 
5
0
60
0
Nuclear
0
0
0
8
0
 
10
0
10
0
Hydroelectric
0
0
0
4
0
 
5
0
5
0
Natural Gas
117
0
0
60
68
 
77
90
100
117
Oil
161
6
7
184
312
 
236
350
200
322
Biomass
200
44
88
20
4
 
26
52
20
4
Coal
228
50
114
120
272
 
157
354
121
276
*
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
100
209
400
656
 
516
846
516
719
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
*
Pounds of CO2 Produced 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per Million Pounds of BTU
  Total Energy Demand  
in 2030
 
 
 
(British Thermal Units)
 
30% above total energy of 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Note these highlights from the chart.  

  • The chart shows a 4 fold increase in energy consumption in the hundred years from 1915 to 2015, and a 30% forecast increase from 2015 to 2030 due to population growth.
  • Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectric produce zero CO2, and natural gas produces significantly less CO2 than the other carbonaceous sources of energy.
  • In 2030 even when we assume that penetration from wind and solar will grow from 1 to 11% of total energy along with a healthy growth of natural gas at the expense of oil and coal, the total CO2 reduction is only 15%.
                                               (846-719)/846= 15%   

This is substantially short of the 30% the government’s goal, thus supporting Gate’s premise of the magnitude of the challenge.                                                                                        

On the positive side, Gates believes we should unleash the creative and entrepreneurial human spirit by funding research for the better ideas. The funding should come from private sources, such as the Gates Foundation is doing, as well as government sources. These goals would include using fossil fuel more efficiently as well as developing solar and other renewables that are more competitive with fossil fuel without the need for economic subsidies.  

Obviously a short term approach could come from the conversion of coal and oil to natural gas. Natural gas is economically competitive with oil and coal, produces significantly less CO2 and needs no financial subsidy as do the renewables. Nuclear produces no CO2, but the fact that nuclear has waste disposal problems makes it unattractive. Nevertheless, research should be devoted to solving that problem. 

Taxing fossil fuel and subsidizing non-competitive renewables simply increases the cost of fuels for automotive, factory operation and home electric and heating. All of these ideas penalize the poor while having little impact on the wealthy, thus causing the poor to become poorer.

It is to be hoped that politicians and environmentalists listen to what Gates is telling us so we don’t do something stupid.

 

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Perspective: Why the Electorate Likes Trump and Carson


The Media and the Republican Party hierarchy cannot figure out the Trump and Carson phenomenon.  That is understandable because both the Media and the Politicians are so out of touch with the voters. A casual look and one would note that about 90 million Americans are out of meaningful jobs, and they are mad as hell about it because they have been unceremoniously dumped out of the market and can’t get back. These are not ditch digger jobs, and every segment of the labor market is affected. Moreover, it is more than the loss of income. It’s the loss of who you are! For example, when you are introduced to someone, they inevitably ask you what you do and you proudly respond, I am a manager, teacher, minister, supervisor, secretary, nurse or whatever. Your job defined you!  

Now, out of work for 3-4 years or more and asked the question, you have to say that you used to be a bank teller, or a paralegal, a manager, an accountant, secretary, teacher or a waiter. Now you are unemployed. The Republicans don’t know how to tell you how they will bring jobs back. The Democrats seem content to leave things the ways things are, blame Wall Street and only want to tax the rich and give the unemployed stuff free. These folks want a job, not a handout!!

The truth is that those out of work do not trust the Politicians. They think the Politicians are the cause of the problem, and they are right. Moreover, the out of work don’t care what a Politician says about his record or the claims about what he has done. Take Jeb Bush for example. He says that ten years ago he did great things as Governor of Florida. Neither Bush, the politicians nor especially the Media understand that ten years is equivalent to a century considering what has changed in a mere ten years. Ten years ago the I-Pad, the Smart Phone with all of it apps, Face book, Twitter, Instagram, Streaming of TV programs and Movies, Google searches and the driverless car were ideas but did not exist in the mainstream as they do today.  

And these developments have already impacted or are about to impact virtually every good paying job including medicine, law, manufacturing, shopping, restaurants, and  particularly education, to name just a few. If you checked into a restaurant or a store and found a kiosk where there used to be a person, you know what we are talking about. Where there used to be people waiting upon you; now there are machines.  

You would think politicians would notice that the machine pays no tax, and buys no goods. Thus, one might expect the Politicians would plan to tax or regulate the machine. Instead the Politicians allow the capitalist who purchases and installs the machine, to get a fast tax write-off. Is any wonder the out of work are so angry!! 

Making the problem more complex for the out of work voter, is that jobs that are available such as managing the machines require higher skills than many of those displaced have. Worse they and potential employers are not sure they are even trainable. Exacerbating the problem further is that employers can find a younger more trainable person who works for a lower salary than the 50 something who lost a good high paying job.  

Then there is the case that many manufacturing jobs are returning, but employers such as GE, who constantly tout their digital expertise, seek employees with skills in science, technology, engineering and math. Many Asians who came here to school who have these skills are being encouraged to stay, thus creating another facet of the immigration dilemma that the Politicians are unable to articulate, least to solve.  And this impacts the jobless, as well.    

Now, creating those self rewarding jobs will not be easy. However, the least we should expect of the Politicians and the Media to do is to take a stab at talking about it in truthful terms instead of blaming Wall Street or China or something else. Then they might be able to come up with plans that fit the needs of these 90 million out of work. 

The bottom line is that the voting public in both parties whose jobs have been impacted by globalization and the digital revolution know the Politicians are responsible for the entire problem due the tax and regulations they have promulgated that impede job creation. The Media is completely out of touch or worse is deliberately misleading and therefore is no help. These unemployed are furious and have had it with the Political Class and the Media. They want someone who is honest and will do what they say they will do about their plight, and furthermore and most importantly, someone who is not and never has been a politician controlled by lobbyists!! This is why Trump, Carson and Fiorina, the non-politicians, pole so high. The Media and the Elite Political Class don’t get it, and it is not likely that they ever will!

 

 

 

 

.

 

Monday, October 26, 2015

Perspective: Hillary's Benghazi Interview


 
Last Thursday, October 22, 2015, the Benghazi House Committee interviewed Hilary Clinton for 11 hours on public television to determine what she knew about the event that occurred on September 11, 2011. The Media in general reported that Hillary sailed through the 11 hours unscathed, and nothing new was learned. For the most part that is true, but here are some new and significant findings.

 

  1. We learned that Hillary was a major player in getting us into Libya in the first place. During the interview it became clear that Hillary instigated and participated in the implementation of the plan to topple Gaddafi the President of Libya and that she very much wanted it to be known that she was a major player.

 

  1. After Gaddafi was killed, Libya was a no mans land. Ambassador Stevens and his staff sent 600 requests to the State Department for help, all of which were denied. In the interview, Hillary stated that these requests never came to her attention. None of her staff were fired, and she claimed that she did not have the authority to fire anyone.

 

  1. Eleven O’clock the night of the attack Hillary e-mailed Chelsea stating that two of our personnel were killed by al Queda terrorists. She also e-mailed the Premier of Egypt with the same message, adding it was not the film. This indicated that she and as well as most of those involved knew that very night that it was an al Queda attack, which was subsequently verified. The real Benghazi story is the cover up by the Administration. Hillary simply fell in with the Administration’s narrative that the attack was instigated by the video.

 

That Hillary is a liar is confirmed by the e-mails, that she is an incompetent manager is confirmed by her claiming she never knew of the 600 requests for help. These subordinates report to her. Six hundred is a huge number. Imagine her asking her subordinates “what is new”? What would they have told her? Now, remember no one was fired, and Hillary claimed in the interview that she did not have the power to fire anyone.

 

In no way did the Committee require 11 hours to determine what she knew. Moreover, politically that would have best been done behind closed doors. What was accomplished was to show case Hillary’s political acumen.

 

In pursuit of the cover up part of the the Benghazi story, the Committee still has the Secretary of Defense, General Petraeus and other top ranking personnel to interview to determine who created the video story and why no help was sent to the four Americans the night of September 11, 2011.

 

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Perspective: Does the 60 Minutes Interview Show Obama as Delusional?


By any measure the Obama presidency and the Republican held House and Senate are abysmal failures, and everyone, especially the voters as well as our allies and foes knows it. Under Obama’s watch, jobs for the middle class are scarce and middle class wages have declined while the cost of living has increased dramatically. Excessive regulations and taxes have discouraged businesses from hiring. Meanwhile, Obamacare has been foisted upon both employers and employees with all of its issues which stymie the economic growth needed to create jobs.  In the foreign world Obama is at odds with his military as he proudly “leads from behind” leaving the Middle East in a shambles that will take decades to repair, if indeed it can ever be repaired. Meanwhile, Russia is filling the vacuum. The question is whether it can get worse during the remaining 15 months we have with Obama? If so, is there anything a Republican Congress can consider doing? 

In a blog posted December 18, 2014, I defined Megalomania a condition that this President exhibits which may explain why he is “Inable to perform his duties” such that the  25th Amendment might be applied.  Megalomania is a psychological condition characterized by delusional fancies of power, omnipotence and inflated self esteem.. The psychiatric definition of “delusion” is: “Maintaining fixed but false beliefs usually as a result of mental illness.” 

Recent proof of this occurred on Sixty Minutes. Under the questioning of Steve Kroft, Obama demonstrated that he is “delusional”. He thinks that the economy is growing along with increases in wages, that we are succeeding in the Middle East and that ISIS is being defeated. If you missed this interview, you might be able to see it on line.  

Consequently, a Republican Congress could deem Obama “Inable” to perform his presidential duties in the manner that the Constitution describes. Therefore, he could be removed from office until he is ‘cured’ of this malady.   

If the Republicans had the courage to apply this remedy, then “We the People” might be able to breathe easier for the next fifteen months. On the other hand, if Congress remains spineless, we are stuck with this incompetent, feckless and reckless President. Therefore, all we have left is prayer!!

 

 

 

Monday, October 5, 2015

Persspective: Russia in Syria


In my June 13,2015  blog I raised the question of what should our policy be now that President Obama, leading from behind, has left the Middle East in a complete state of shambles? Please bear with me while I reiterate what Obama has unilaterally done with out the approval of Congress or our Military. 

The first act of the newly elected President Obama in 2009 was to go to Cairo, Egypt and apologize for all the harm the United States has done to the Middle East . Then in 2011 he managed to do the following:

1.      Encouraged the Brotherhood to remove Mubarak, the President of Egypt.

2.      Got Gaddafi the dictator of Libya  assassinated

3.      Encouraged rebels in Syria to remove their dictator Assad

4.      Pulled all our troops out of Iraq

5.      Announced the date that we would remove our troops from Afghanistan

 After that he formed an Agreement with Iran to allegedly prevent their getting the bomb. 

By 2013 it was clear that no matter how bad the dictatorships were they were better than having radical Islamic jihadists such as Al Queda or ISIS take over as they have in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and as the Brotherhood did in Egypt until they were kicked out by the Egyptian military. 

Because we no longer need Middle East oil, due to our fracking windfall, my 2013 blog proposed that we offer to help form a partnership of those who still need Middle East oil. That partnership would consist of China, India, South Korea, Japan and needy European countries, where the United States should only act as a facilitator. We should have only one stipulation, namely that the partnership becomes responsible for protecting the good Middle East governments and that includes Israel.  

We knew that the Obama Administration wouldn’t even try to pull this off. Instead they left a vacuum that is now being filled by Russia who moved military personnel and material into Syria in September of 2015 to preserve the Assad government. Now Russia, Assad’s Syria and Iran working with Baghdad’s Iraq government will be left to deal with the Middle East problem. Since Obama will do nothing to reverse the Russian actions in Syria, we might as well relax and enjoy our chance to leave the Middle East shambles for  the Russians to manage. Our only concern is that our leaders don’t stumble into a war with Russia.  

Regarding what Obama has done to the Middle East, we had our chance. “We the People” knew about this President in 2011 when he unilaterally did what he did to the Middle East, but in 2012 we reelected him anyway. And despite his failure to abide by his oath to uphold the Constitution and his conduct that clearly fits the “High Crime and Misdemeanor” terms of the Constitution, the Republican controlled House and Congress won’t even mention the “I” word.  

Now, we still 15 more months of this President who pays no attention to US law and as Commander in Chief will do nothing to help our allies in the Middle East. If it were not so sad and fearful, it would be laughable to see and hear our Media and Politicians wringing their hands over what to do. What to do has long passed!!