Perspective: Can the American Dream Be Saved?

Since 2000 well over 50,000 US factories have closed, and roughly 90 million Americans workers are either under employed or unemployed mainly as a result.  This loss of jobs phenomenon has been well documented. A report dated March 2012 produced by The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a think tank, states:

 “In the 2000s, US manufacturing suffered its worst performance in American history in terms of jobs. The decline as a share of total manufacturing jobs exceeded the rate of loss in the Great Depression of the 1930s. 

Remarkably, most of the establishment economists, pundits, and elected officials are totally blasé about what has transpired. Meanwhile, millions of disenfranchised workers are “mad as hell”. Worse they are losing their faith in the American Dream. 

Trump and Sanders have tapped into this frustration as evidenced by the unprecedented size of the crowds who stand in line for hours to hear them speak. Both Trump and Sanders offer paths forward which the blasé establishment immediately pooh poohs as impossible to implement. So, are the workers to believe that there are no solutions? Of course not, but it is clear that they want new leadership, and they are not offended by the blunt language of Trump or by a 74 year old socialist. 

There is a glimmer of hope for the American Dream. An article in the March 2016 issue of “The Atlantic”, entitled “How America is Putting Itself Back Together” shows that the American spirit still exists and is functioning even in the areas hardest hit by the greatest manufacturing decline since the Great Depression.  

The author, James Fallows and his wife Deb, traveled the US from East to West and North to South for three years. Most of what they found is beneath the traditional radar and out of ear-shot of the blasé establishment. But quoting from the article: “In nearly every place that we have gone, America thinks of itself as having a few distinct islands of technical creativity of start-ups and reinventions. The authors found that even what one would consider as hopeless places are reinventing themselves. 

One example of new technology they found is the three dimensional printer. Three dimensional designs are created on the computer and then the product is manufactured in plastic or metal by printing it in three dimensionals. This means that one can make the product in one’s garage or small building instead of requiring a huge factory for mass production of the product.  This concept fits the entrepreneurial instincts and skills that are so typical of the America spirit. It also fits the current market where the consumer likes to purchase something unique that is customized to fit the consumer’s specific need and lifestyle. 

If this reminds you of the cottage industries that existed in the nineteenth century before they were wiped out by the big production lines of the Industrial Revolution, you are thinking correctly. We are at the edge of a paradigm shift that will be enormous. The possibilities for these new technologies and local application of entrepreneurial opportunities are huge, and they can play a major role in finding new America based and well paying jobs for the workers displaced by trade agreements that favor overseas labor. 

This election is vitally important because Government can play a major role to speed up the response the 90 million workers displaced by the globalization and digital revolutions are demanding. Everyone knows that our tax structure needs desperately to be overhauled to encourage entrepreneurial start ups and small businesses. Also, everyone knows that our high school education system suitable for the 19th’ and early 20^th century businesses is woefully out of date for the “Smart Phone” business needs of the 21^st century. 

Now, bringing jobs back from overseas or creating new ones is easier said than done! Further it may take a longer time than the out-of-work workers are willing to provide. So if the establishment hierarchies of both political parties attempt to thwart the wishes of the working class electorate, as they are now doing, they do so at their peril, because the millions of the disgruntled electorate will not wait forever!

 

 

 

Perspective: Our Neighbors

This was a talk I gave on February 24, 2016 at the Smethport, PA United  Methodist Church Lenten Program

Lent is a time for reflection about our Christian faith, and how we are doing. In the forty days of Lent, Christians focus on their relationship with God, often choosing to give up something, or to give of themselves for others. It is particularly appropriate that we think of others this year. But first, a little background.

For centuries Christians have sent missionaries to Asia and other continents to spread the Christian word and in so doing helped others to improve their lives. However, none of those missionaries could have imagined that in less than a century the middle class could have more than tripled in Asia while the number of Christians on that continent also tripled.

The United States is principally responsible for this achievement. Here is how it worked. WWII left the United States as the only manufacturer of consumer goods. Shortly after the war, however, America helped Germany and Japan to rebuild their manufacturing capacity, and then in late 1970’s America encouraged China to get in the manufacturing business, along with India South Korea, Bangladesh and Vietnam.  Today, the number in the middle class in China exceeds the number in the US, and there are more billionaires in China than there are in America. The Buick is high among their favorite cars.

Unfortunately, this magnificent achievement has been at the expense of the standard of living of the blue collar middle class in the United States. By the 1980’s many of the factory jobs in the US had moved off shore to Asia where labor costs were low. The trend continues as manufacturing jobs declined another 30 percent since 2000. Swaths of abandoned factories across the Country are the physical signs of this horrendous trend.  

Then in the 1990’s the digital revolution exacerbated the problem for the working class as robotic machines began to replace humans in virtually every commercial venture at an ever increasing pace.  

Today, nearly 90 million American blue collar workers are under employed or out of work entirely, and experts believe the number of  remaining jobs will be cut in half within the next two decades. The bottom line is that the uncontrolled globalization and digital revolution have hit the American blue collar worker the hardest, and the rate of change is too fast for these workers to adjust causing the current catastrophic situation.   

Now, losing one’s job is only part of the issue. The worker is often defined by the job. For example, when you meet someone your first question is: “What do you do?” The answer might be: “I’m a foreman on the Glass Block Production Line.” Now, the unemployed worker will say: “For twenty years I was a foreman on the Glass Block line, but five years ago my job was moved to China.” Or you might be told that for 20 years I was a checkout person at Wal-Mart, and be told that “yesterday they replaced me with a kiosk.” That is a fancy name for a machine. Both of these persons did not just lose their jobs. They lost their identity and dignity. Worse, they are losing their faith in the American dream.  

If you have been following the presidential election this year, you have noted that both the republican and democrat members of the blue collar middle class are, to paraphrase a line from a famous movie, “As Mad as….Well, very upset, and Not Going to Take It Anymore!” They blame the establishment Politicians of both parties and most of the Media for their plight. This is why they are willing to stand in line for hours to attend the meetings of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, and it illustrates how desperate the blue collar middle class is for someone to lead them out of their dilemma. 

The question is who is responsible for their dilemma? The answer is we are all responsible because we never raised our voices to demand that our representatives do anyting to slow the rate of globalization in order to keep jobs here. Robotization for example is especially insidious and should be especially challenged because robots buy no goods or services. How can this be good for a consumer based economy when those displaced human consumers don’t have the wherewithal to purchase goods or services, either?

It took decades to get where we are, but America is strong and we can and will recover. However, it is going to take a while. In the interim the question is, what, if anything, can we Christians do? 

Jesus gives us a clue. He told us to love your neighbor as yourself. These 90 million folk who have lost their jobs, their dignity and, in some cases, often their ability to provide food and shelter for their families, are our neighbors. We should never look down upon these neighbors who might even have to take handouts to survive. At the very least, we Christians need to provide understanding, love and our prayers for those neighbors less fortunate than we!   

But wait, here is an idea! My wife, Mary Lee suggested that this might be an opportunity for Churches to do some missionary work here at home!  

Churches have buildings, computers and members who have skills that could be used to help these neighbors. Perhaps the Church buildings could be places for these folk to meet to share their issues with other like persons and possibly get some help to develop skills needed for today’s workplace. At the least these neighbors might find the moral support they need to regain their confidence in themselves and the American dream!  In addition, this might even boost membership in Churches that are suffering. 

Something to contemplate at this Lenten season!

 

Perspective: Russia in the Middle East

The Middle East  is in a shambles which  can be traced to the actions of President Obama and his first Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton.  In 2011 these two were involved in the removal of heads of states of Egypt, Libya, and Syria. Then they pulled all our troops out of Iraq, adding that country to the list of unstable counties. This paved the way for ISIS, Radical Islamic Jihadists, to move into Libya, Syria, Yemen and Iraq and then to form a Caliphate from the land they captured. Now, like a metastasized cancer and from this Caliphate, radical Islamic terrorism is now expanding into the Western world and even Jakarta, Indonesia.

While the Administration has dallied about what our policy should be in the Middle East, Russia has moved into the vacuum. Fortunately, because of fracking we don’t need oil from the Middle East as we historically did. Therefore, one option would be to just walk away. And while we would like to do nothing, the aforementioned metastasized cancer in the Caliphate forces the US to do something. The question is what?

However, something we should not do is to try to kick Russia out of the Middle East. Russia and the United States  have a common enemy in Radical Islamic Terrorism, and we need to find a sensible way to eradiate it and its Caliphate. The sooner we get on with that objective the sooner the rest of the world will be safe from ISIS and other Radical Islamic Terrorists.

This all becomes rather academic because the sad thing is that no presidential candidate will be in office before January 20, 2017. That is over a year away, but that is a lifetime as far as the Middle East problem is concerned. So, it matters little what the candidates tell us today what they would do. The problem will be significantly worse because President Obama, as Commander in Chief, will do nothing of consequence to destroy ISIS or help our allies in the Middle East.

 

So, as Betty Davis said in the 1950 movie “All about Eve”, “ Fasten your seat belts, it going to be a bumpy ride!”

 

Perspective Letter to Santa 2015

            Dear Santa

 

Do not bring any toys this year.

For the World has too much to fear.

Fiddling with text, I-Pad or Smart Phone

Makes it too easy to just postpone

Dealing with the problems of the day

Which require all of us to pray

For perfect and correct solutions

Not frivolous useless delusions.

 

Machines that take jobs and pay no wage

Put most workers in a state of rage.

Term Islamic terrorist avoid

For fear Muslims become paranoid.

Riots about how Black Lives matter

Makes us avoid cities, and scatter.

As to the high rate of school drop out

We just don’t care what it is about.

 

So what is it we need this season?

A Leader who knows how to reason!

One who knows how to talk to and reach,
Every black, white, man, woman, each.

A person whose word is absolute bond

Not stated to make listeners fond.

One who can speak to other leaders

Who does not act like a first grade reader.

 

Yes, we will forgoe getting our toys,

And we will not cry or make a noise

We need someone to be respected

Not one who leaves problems neglected.

Please send us some one who will inspire

Not cause us anguish or us perspire.

A Leader with a strong constitution,

And who respects our Constitution

 

      Wayne and Mary Lee

         Christmas 2015

 

 

 

 

Perspective: Bill Gates Takes on Climate Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the November issue of the Atlantic magazine, Bill Gates is interviewed by James Bennet who quotes Gates as saying that “we need an energy miracle” to propel the world beyond fossil fuels fast enough to outpace potentially cataclysmic climate change. This is a cogent piece with a new perspective on what realistically can be done to deal with Climate Change keyed to carbon dioxide formed from the combustion of fossil fuels. The essence of Bill Gates position is that we need an energy miracle to accomplish the CO2 reduction goals the government is setting. The immensity of our use of CO2 producing fuels, the growing demand for energy, the low cost and plentiful supply of fossil fuels and our reluctance to build nuclear electrical plants, makes moving to a new energy paradigm big a hill to climb. Gates recommends that we invest in R& D to release the Country’s entrepreneurial energy to solve some of these complex issues. That the clean energy goal the environmentalists insist on is so gigantic is why Bill Gates says it will take a miracle to achieve it.

 Here is a summary of the points Gates makes.

• It is unprecedented to change an infrastructure this large this quickly. Moreover, it is not clear to Gates that there is anything in sight that could significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

• Clean energy enthusiasts make unrealistic claims such as that solar energy has the same cost as hydrocarbon based energy. When the sun shines solar energy can compete with hydrocarbon energy, but when it doesn’t, hydrocarbons have to be on standby. It is expensive to have a huge hydrocarbon energy infrastructure on standby to be used intermittently, and battery technology is not cheep.

 

• To get to clean energy is a global challenge. Carbon dioxide is not a local pollutant. It mixes in the global atmosphere. It doesn’t matter where the hydrocarbon energy is produced in China, India or elsewhere. 

• Heating levels have not exactly tracked the climate models. This gives the skeptics reason to wait and see, thus not providing a political will to drop everything to tackle this goal.

Let’s examine what is involved. A century ago our energy came from the combustion of biomass and coal with a smidgeon from hydroelectricity. Today more than 90% of our energy comes from biomass, coal, oil, and natural gas, all of which produce CO2 when combusted. The remaining energy comes from hydroelectric and nuclear with only a smidgeon coming from renewables such as solar and wind.  

The amount of CO2 produced relates to the amount of carbon in the fuel being burned. The highest carbon is in coal, the next is oil and biomass with natural gas having the least. The amount of heat produced relates to both the carbon and hydrogen content. Here again natural gas is the best of the fossil fuels. Its chemical formula is one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms per molecule, CH4.Moreover, natural gas contains no sulfur or other toxic substances released when biomass, coal or oil are combusted. 

This chart shows the source of the US energy 100 years ago versus today and forecasts what it probably will be in 2030.The “amount” column reflects the increased energy used and how energy demand has grown and will probably grow with population growth. Thus, for example, 2015 has four times the population of 1915, and population in 2030 will be about 30% greater than 2015. This chart also shows the amount of CO2 created from the combustion of the various energy sources.

 

		ENERGY SOURCE VERSUS CO2 PRODUCTION
										Projected Energy to 2030
		1915	1915		2015	2015				No    Change			Change
Source	CO2*	Energy	CO2		Energy	CO2				Energy	CO2		Energy	CO2
		Amount			Amount					Amount			Amount
Renewable	0	0	0		4	0				5	0		60	0
Nuclear	0	0	0		8	0				10	0		10	0
Hydroelectric	0	0	0		4	0				5	0		5	0
Natural Gas	117	0	0		60	68				77	90		100	117
Oil	161	6	7		184	312				236	350		200	322
Biomass	200	44	88		20	4				26	52		20	4
Coal	228	50	114		120	272				157	354		121	276
*
		100	209		400	656				516	846		516	719
*	Pounds of CO2 Produced
	Per Million Pounds of BTU					Total Energy Demand					in 2030
	(British Thermal Units)					30% above total energy of 2015

Note these highlights from the chart.  

• The chart shows a 4 fold increase in energy consumption in the hundred years from 1915 to 2015, and a 30% forecast increase from 2015 to 2030 due to population growth.
• Renewables, nuclear and hydroelectric produce zero CO2, and natural gas produces significantly less CO2 than the other carbonaceous sources of energy.
• In 2030 even when we assume that penetration from wind and solar will grow from 1 to 11% of total energy along with a healthy growth of natural gas at the expense of oil and coal, the total CO2 reduction is only 15%.

                                               (846-719)/846= 15%   

This is substantially short of the 30% the government’s goal, thus supporting Gate’s premise of the magnitude of the challenge.                                                                                        

On the positive side, Gates believes we should unleash the creative and entrepreneurial human spirit by funding research for the better ideas. The funding should come from private sources, such as the Gates Foundation is doing, as well as government sources. These goals would include using fossil fuel more efficiently as well as developing solar and other renewables that are more competitive with fossil fuel without the need for economic subsidies.  

Obviously a short term approach could come from the conversion of coal and oil to natural gas. Natural gas is economically competitive with oil and coal, produces significantly less CO2 and needs no financial subsidy as do the renewables. Nuclear produces no CO2, but the fact that nuclear has waste disposal problems makes it unattractive. Nevertheless, research should be devoted to solving that problem. 

Taxing fossil fuel and subsidizing non-competitive renewables simply increases the cost of fuels for automotive, factory operation and home electric and heating. All of these ideas penalize the poor while having little impact on the wealthy, thus causing the poor to become poorer.

It is to be hoped that politicians and environmentalists listen to what Gates is telling us so we don’t do something stupid.